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Is Auckland Housing Market Heating Up as Confidence Returns

Is Auckland Housing Market Heating Up

Auckland’s housing market is experiencing a resurgence in activity, with some real estate agencies reporting its busiest sales month in two years. The average sale price in Auckland has reached $1.2 million, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous month.

This positive outlook comes after a period of decline caused by rising interest rates. However, analysts caution that the national property market remains subdued, with a national increase of only 0.5% in the past month.

The increase in Auckland is attributed to a combination of factors. Firstly, a significant rise in net migration to New Zealand, with over 133,000 people arriving in the past year, is driving demand for housing. Secondly, a slowdown in new home construction is putting further pressure on a limited housing supply.

Despite the current economic climate, some potential buyers, like John and his wife who recently purchased a property in South Auckland, are taking the plunge to secure a home before prices climb further.

Policy Changes and Market Predictions

Recent government policy changes aim to impact the property market, including reinstating interest deductibility and shortening the bright-line test period. Economists are revising their house price predictions for 2024, with most now expecting prices to remain flat.

Construction Activity

The latest building work data reveals an increase in the annual value of construction work in 2023, primarily driven by non-residential projects like offices and healthcare facilities. This growth may reflect both higher construction volumes and increased material and labor costs.

Commercial Property Sales

The program showcases a selection of recent commercial property sales by the company, including office warehouses, industrial spaces, and premium investment properties. The report suggests a pick-up in commercial property market activity.

Global Residential Market

Globally, prime residential property prices in major cities have shown positive growth, with several New Zealand cities, including Wellington and Christchurch, experiencing increases above 5%.

Is the Auckland’s Housing Market still in the Crisis? Find Out …

Is the Auckland's Housing Market still in the Crisis

Auckland’s housing market is in a precarious state, as property prices have shown signs of deterioration in 76 suburbs over the past three months, just as the traditionally busy spring season arrives. This decline is a disheartening development for homeowners, who had recently glimpsed signs of recovery. However, prospective buyers now face the double whammy of escalating prices and soaring interest rates. This analytical article delves into the factors responsible for Auckland’s housing market woes and explores the broader implications of this downturn for New Zealand’s real estate landscape.

A Lingering Slump

New Zealand’s median house price took a significant nosedive, losing over $150,000 in value during a 15-month slump following the market’s peak in November 2021. Data from the Real Estate Institute reveals that prices reached an all-time high of $925,000, only to plummet by 18% to $762,000 in February of this year. The median price now stands at $767,000. Auckland, mirroring the national trend, witnessed a dramatic price decrease, falling from $1.3 million in November 2021 to $943,000 in January 2022 before limping back to $1.01 million.

CoreLogic’s latest data presents a grim picture, showing that a robust recovery remains elusive, despite the earlier glimmers of hope. Prominent Auckland suburbs such as Birkdale, Stonefields, Howick, and Ōtara have experienced price increases of just 2% since June 1. Even luxury suburbs like Herne Bay, Parnell, and Ponsonby have witnessed feeble price hikes of at least 1.7% over the past quarter. The housing downturn is universal, affecting a broad spectrum of suburbs, encompassing both the higher and lower ends of the market.

A Nationwide Crisis

Regrettably, this housing market crisis is not confined to Auckland. CoreLogic’s data illustrates that in the past three months, prices have waned in 269 out of 924 suburbs across New Zealand. A comparison between June and September shows a distressing increase in the number of suburbs facing price declines. In June, 71 suburbs had recorded a modest rise of at least 0.5% in the previous three months. However, by September, that number has escalated to 188, underscoring the breadth of the crisis.

Factors Driving the Descent

The housing market’s gloomy state is shaped by several distressing factors. Interest rates, though unlikely to rise further, have already climbed to staggering heights. Migration into New Zealand has surged, increasing the demand for housing. As a result, population growth is now outstripping supply, which spells disaster for affordability. Any potential rate reductions by the Reserve Bank in the coming year could offer a glimmer of hope, but the path to recovery remains uncertain.

While current homeowners might be somewhat relieved to see a partial rebound in prices, affordability issues loom large. High housing costs continue to eat into take-home pay, exacerbating inequality and poverty.

The Final Word

Auckland’s housing market is caught in a precarious situation, facing a protracted downturn, exacerbated by rising prices and soaring interest rates. Government policies, economic conditions, and the complex web of stakeholders will play a crucial role in determining the market’s future trajectory. The current state of the market, on the precipice of a national election, adds an extra layer of uncertainty, with the implications of the downturn becoming increasingly evident in the months ahead. For now, the market remains characterized by instability in interest rates, muted listing inquiries, and dwindling seller confidence. The ongoing affordability crisis underscores the dire circumstances in Auckland and New Zealand’s housing markets.

Auckland Housing Market Continues To Grow

Auckland housing market

A recent drop in Auckland housing prices may have worked in favor of real estate brokerage agencies and private sellers. Even as the selling prices and sales volumes dropped by a margin, the trading patterns remained quite the same. Property listings in the Auckland housing market were up by 19.7% still, on a month-on-month basis; and compared to the December average selling price of $1.278 million, the January figure was a decent $1.230 million, after a 3.8% drop.

January reflects greenery for the Auckland housing market

There has been a drop of 12.1% in the month-to-month sales volumes. December clocked in at 15.2% above January 2021. December’s 911 transactions were succeeded by only 801 transactions this January. The Level-4 lockdowns make it difficult to deduce exact figures in comparison to 2019-2020.

But, strong demand for quality housing in Auckland has led to rapid price surges of properties across the city, in recent years. Outdoing, Auckland housing market predictions, 2021 witnessed a whopping 1516 $3M homes exchanging hands in Auckland in the last year alone.

Auckland traded at a surprisingly high rate in January, with 1135 new listings making it to the market. This spelled a sales rate of 15.2% higher year on year, in January. Despite January’s negligible drop in the average selling price of homes in Auckland, the market fared better than December 2021’s national median of $905,000.

According to Auckland housing market news, a top brokerage firm finished January with a total of 3827 properties on the books, a 15-month record high. Plus, Auckland’s January median selling price of $1,025,000 also chased the national median, which was  $1.028 million in January- a 27.5% year-on-year, and up% month-on-month.

Auckland housing market: 5 years ago, and now

This is a far-removed possibility from the expectations one could have of the Auckland housing market predictions of 5 years ago. A $3M house in Auckland, half a decade back, was considered a luxury buy, and usually situated in sought-after suburbs.

However, the scenario has become drastically different now, in terms of asset value growth. For example, 5 years ago, a $3M sale equaled a 5-3 bedroom water-side property maxing over 900+ sq. meters, with at least two car parks, and in a suburb like Omaha. Despite nearby sights like vineyards and golf course recreation.

Today, such a property would fetch an even prettier penny in the Auckland market; something to the tune of nearly $6M now. The same can be said for properties in Remuera, Takapuna, Queenstown, and the likes.

Admitted, $3M homes today cannot match the scale or luxury of their counterparts from 5-years ago. Today, Queenstown ranks the highest price average in NZ- $1.15M. The definition of prestige homes in 2022’s Auckland, resembles houses with smaller spreads and lifestyle features.

The trade-off is the abundance of sizeable listings in fringe suburbs like Ponsonby, where even 3-bedroom, 1-bath homes (with off-street parking to boot) are selling for $2.96M. Plus, you can unexpectedly stumble across the odd heritage property here, with modernized ‘kauri’ features. Takapuna Beach is not far behind, either, with “environmentally focussed” residential projects coming up.

Ignoring tough lending conditions, LVR ratios, and rising interest rates, Auckland housing market predictions from experts suggest another 5% growth for Auckland across the calendar year 2022.

Auckland Housing Market Average Asking Price Drops to 4-Month Low

Auckland Housing Market

COVID-19 restrictions outside the city and Level 4 restrictions inside have forced the market to drop to a 4-month low with the average asking price dropping by 2.8% to $865,348 in September, from $900,671 in August, as per industry reports. The Auckland housing market, however, remained buoyant.

Tough times for the NZ real estate market?

The housing market in New Zealand surpassed expectations of the industry and beyond amidst the pandemic. Even up until September, the nation’s property trade exhibited the highest growth since 2000- not a small feat by any means. The avg. yearly listings numbers across the NZ market as a whole, have gone down in comparison to 2020. There is a lack of open homes- which indicates homes ranging in the national avg. asking price coming into the market. and abundance of high-priced properties.

There were only13,407 homes available to buy; which is 23.7% lesser than the year-on-year. Lack of supply, coupled with pent-up demand has driven up the asking prices in some parts. But, the stringent Loan-to-Value diktats and high interest rates have also curbed some of that demand.

Experts and buyers should know, however, that while the average NZ asking price shows a stagnant market, the positive news has trickled out of other cities besides Auckland. While other localities are barely managing to hold on to their growth with Level 2, restrictions, Auckland is still racing, even with a Level 3 restriction.

Auckland housing market – still going strong?

Auckland has shown great promise in the last few months, reaching record median house price hikes in July and August. High demand coupled with FONFA (Fear Of Not Finding Anything) drove customers to purchase property at premium prices. A 5-year record-breaking 7345 properties exchanged hands across Auckland in June 2021; in comparison to June 2020.

This means the transactions had increased by 6.2% year on year. Nationally the average asking price was $893,794 and $875,197 in June and July, respectively. If Auckland housing market news and reports are to be believed, then the city’s property market is the only resilient sub-market amidst the September lockdown restrictions. Market experts and brokers remain hopeful because the month was not completely unproductive.

Additional Read:

Bet on these Auckland Housing Market Suburbs with Highest Growth since 2000

Despite the Level-4 lockdown, there have been strong reports of lucrative property deals that brought the average asking price here to $1,196,975. Some of Auckland’s suburbs depicted record highs since the 2000s. Location’s such as Point England have witnessed a cool 616% hike, Glen Innes saw a 310% hike, and Wai ō Tāiki saw a 594% increment, in the last couple of decades. Locales such as Oneroa, and Point Chevalier have also shown great performance in the last half of a decade.

However, September news suggests that the property market here is now highly reliant on one-on-one viewings. New listings in September have been down by 57.9% in Auckland. The new listings are even lower than August listings by 34%. The housing stock is also down by a worrisome 21%. But, Auckland housing market predictions from hopeful experts suggest that these numbers should start climbing again, once the restrictions are lowered to level 2 from the incumbent Level 3.

What is in store for the rest of New Zealand?

Wellington has displayed a hike in the year-on-year listings numbers, with an increment of 26.3%, year-on-year. The average asking price here remained at a respectable $958,670 in September. There was a generous increase in listings, year-on-year, by 14.5%, and even the stock went up by 21.9%. Wellington locales, such as Hawkes Bay and Central North Island depicted a 15.2%and 1.6% hike, year-on-year. Overall, Wellington closed the monthly average at $1,082,993, a monthly increase which means a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percent

Overall, the days of fretting for the NZ property market may be short-lived. The rest of NZ can follow the Auckland housing market’s example and cope with easing growth rates. At $950,229, the yearly average value is up by 27.8%, year-on-year. In the saturated Auckland property market, the final average was at $1,346,964, a month-on-month increase of 0.7%.

Brokers and sellers can certainly hope that the prices shall grow, as soon as the restrictions are lowered, should the potential number of buyers in the market hold.

Bet on these Auckland Housing Market Suburbs with Highest Growth since 2000

Auckland Housing Market

Auckland has seen a jump from 1 million to 1.6 million in population, in the last two decades. Demand for Auckland property allowed the city to attracted both local buyers and investors as well as foreign ones. But, the population explosion only served to increase demand and competition for availing quality suburban property in the city. The Auckland housing market also owes it to the Unitary Plan and low mortgage rates for consistently figuring in NZ’s Top 100 suburbs for capital gains.

Notable real estate analytics agencies have surmised that the metropolitan city and its suburbs should grow more cosmopolitan and see more capital gains with each passing day; especially, given the performance of some of these suburbs in the last 20 years.

The new fastest-appreciating suburbs in the Auckland housing market

East Auckland leads the charge in soaring house prices. Most of these locations have witnessed median home value gains in leaps and bounds, even compared to the most prestigious locales of the Super City. Although, these are not the only positive inferences from the aforementioned analytic reports. With higher values, properties in these locations also promise us:

  • Better amenities,
  • Larger section sizes,
  • Attractive property features,
  • A mission to redevelop 2500 state houses into 10,000+ odd private markets and affordable homes,
  • Higher demand and further appreciation of the asset values,  as per Auckland housing market predictions.

The median value appreciation brings further positive news for investors and buyers as Auckland housing market predictions indicate the ascension of ‘dark horse’ entrants to the list of fastest-appreciating suburbs- and it is not just the prestigious ones like Herne Bay or Remuera. To make the most of these capital gains, we must focus on the following locations.

Point England

Point England rules the roost with the highest capital appreciation. Median home values here jumped from $176,400 to $1,263,250 between August 2001-2021- a 616% hike. Through NZ’s Urban Regeneration project, the suburb has retained its ranking for price growth throughout the last decade, accounting for a 336% hike. Even in the last year, the suburb outperformed expectations during the pandemic with a 35% hike.

Glen Innes

Glen Innes has also witnessed some fantastic capital growth in the last score. Glen Innes depicts a median price hike from $189,500 to $1,330,550, which means a 602% growth on avg. Home values here in 20 years. The suburb also joined the frontrunners as one of the top growth cases in the last decade, with a growth of 310%. Through the last 5 years, the suburb saw a hike of another 47%; and, even fought back the pandemic with another 35% hike.

Prime locations here such as East View Road have also helped Glen Inness join Point England as a part of NZ’s Urban Regeneration project. Glen Innes’s proximity to the CBD and transportation links further helped it stand out in the Auckland housing market.

Wai ō Tāiki

A whopping 594% increment in median house prices helped Wai ō Tāiki find its place on this list. Homes at this location went from$252,500 to $1,753,600 in 20 years. The last 10 years have been equally if not more favorable for Wai ō Tāiki, with a 323% increase in the avg. price. Wai ō Tāiki also shared the top spot for growth with Oneroa with 53% growth apiece in the last 5 years. The last year alone, the median rose in the suburb by another 34%.

Wai ō Tāiki’s growth has also been motivated by the same redevelopment initiative by the Tamaki Regeneration Company, which has been a driving factor in nearby Glen Innes. The presence of reserves, parks, and proximity to natural water bodies such as the Bucklands has also helped the cause.

Focus on these suburbs for a diverse, appreciative portfolio

Oneroa avg. home values grew 53% in 5 years, from $1,158,600 to $1,771,550. While Grey Lynn’s 5-year growth has been estimated at 47%, from $1,305,850 to $1,917,800. Ponsonby also witnessed a house value hike from $380,600 to $2,551,800, equalling a 570% boost.

Ōtara and  Māngere East deserve consideration for their performance in the last 10-years. Māngere’s hike of 310% took values from $286,100 to $886,150; and, Ōtara’s hike of 310% took its median value from $254,200 to $793,400.

Point Chevalier makes the cut with a $298,800 to $2,020,400 hike in median house prices, in the last two decades. Auckland housing market predictions indicate further growth here down the line, with plans for development and gentrification.

Thus, these locations which were only known for government-supplied state homes just 20 years ago, are raking in millions at present.

Auckland Housing Market Defies Forecasts with a 30% Price Hike

Auckland Housing Market

The Auckland Housing market has baffled pundits and consumers alike by rising 28.7%, against all expectations and forecasts. This spelled a national median of $820,000 by June, according to institutional real estate news agencies. At least five out of sixteen regions in NZ have hit new median prices for housing; one region held on to the same median value, while twenty others rose to record highs. Auckland is one of them. The Auckland housing market clocked a 25% increase in price, which placed its new median at a record $1,150,000 in June.

Median hikes outdoing expectations and buyer sentiments

Following Auckland’s suit, Marlborough raked up a median hike of 56 percent to $705,000, Waikato rose by 19.7% to $736,000, Taranaki by 41.5% to $580,00, Southland went up by 23.2% to $420,000, and Manawatu/Wanganui by 35.6% to $580,00. The Auckland housing market news agency also reported an increase of 0.3% nationally, in the month-on-month median data. More than half of the regions reported a decent uptick in the median value, in comparison to the previous fiscal quarter.

The demand for premium housing now has left the supply far behind, much to the chagrin of bargain-hunters. However, the Fear-of-not-finding-anything or FONFA is driving buyers to lap up the units even with the hike in the median value. The 7345 properties sold across NZ, in June 2021, increased by 6.2%, from the 6913 units when compared to June 2020 data. This broke a five-year record high for the month of June. Auckland alone reported a hike in the no. of properties sold, from 2144 to 2766, a fifteen-year record high. Hence, the experts were quick to offer an addendum to the Auckland housing market predictions and forecast a strong market in the months to come, unless there are any significant changes to fundamental market factors, such as mortgage rate rises and cash rate hikes.

Auckland Housing Market drives housing sales in other NZ regions

Market reports suggest that another 6 out of 16 regions depicted an increment in the housing sales volumes. Northland, Taranaki, Tasman, Canterbury, and Nelson took inspiration from the Auckland market and responded to the reintroduction of the loan-to-value ratios in March, with a strong, seller’s market.

Brokerage agencies have confessed that open houses and auctions seem to be attracting a respectable amount of footfall across the country; negating the winter slow-down norm usually witnessed around this time of the year. There has also been a nationwide drop in the median no. of days to sell a property, from 46 to 31, another five-year, record-breaking figure. Plus, about 27% of all properties listed were sold at auctions, outdoing the 10.7% of last year.

Thus, FONFA managed to eek the demand well above supply, as availability decreased by 33.3% on a nationwide scale, in June. It went down from the 20,772 of June 2020 to 13,861 this year; the 2nd lowest after Dec 2020’s 12,932.

Auckland Housing Market News Reports National Median Price of $805K

Auckland housing market news

In 2021, the annual increase in asking price reached 16% by March. The Auckland housing market news was quite iterative of the impressive sale numbers- in spite of a drop in supply by 9%, and a demand increase by 26%, in March. Wellington leads the pack with its highest year-on-year growth, clocking 20% above the average asking price prevalent this time, last year. Auckland prices also climbed by 10% in the same category. Besides the regions of Nelson, Otago, and West Coast, Auckland set new asking price records everywhere; even breaking the million mark.

Is the sky the limit for the Auckland house prices in 2021? Let’s follow the chronology from 2020.

Chronology of the 2020 NZ housing market

As per Auckland housing market news, the Auckland Savings Bank reported a dip of 8% in housing confidence. Hence, the temporary annulment of the LVR mitigated pressure on the banks in 2020 and was a well-received decision. The LVRs were initiated in 2013 to allow no more than 10% of a banking institute’s new mortgages by value to be customers with deposits of less than 20%.

However, the Reserve Bank had decided to postpone the LVR reforms from coming into action for a year. The Auckland housing market updates from May 2020 reflected a 10% hike in prices as a result. The Reserve Bank confirmed that in June 2020, first-time home buyers were credited for a bigger share of new mortgages than institutional/professional investors. July reported its highest house sales in 5 years. 

Auckland median house price average rose in August, along with that of more than half the major property market regions in NZ. The national median house price rose from $580,000 in August 2019 to $675,000 in August 2020- depicting a hike of 16.4%. It further rose to a record-breaking $685,000 by September.

The Reserve Bank started cracking down harder, but that did not stop the house prices from reaching a staggering $749,000 in November, reflecting a year-on-year hike of 19.4%. Even with the Government voicing concerns, first-time home buyers made up 24% of the market share, 3% more than the average. The record was broken for the second month in a row as the prices touched $788,000 in December. Auckland housing market updates suggested that it was only when the Reserve Bank discussed reinstating the LVR policies in February 2021, that the median prices fell by a meager percentage to $780,000.

What lies ahead in 2021?

The pundits expect that the market shall cool off April onwards- What with the newly reformed Loan-to-value ration policies by the NZ government coming into action from May 1st; and, the level 4 lockdown in April playing a spoilsport to successful sales.

House sales numbers in April 2021 depicted a drop of as much as 78% when compared to the data from the same month in 2019.  Experts have remained quite firmly rooted in their expectations from the NZ housing market; despite the spike in the Auckland median house price by the 2nd quarter of the calendar year 2021, after a dip in Feb-March.

Is the Auckland Housing Market Entering a Cool-off Period?

Auckland Housing Market

Expert industry study of the Auckland housing market numbers in early May has led to pundits concluding a decrease in buyer interest. The Auckland housing market performed magnificently in the first 6 months of the calendar year. But, an 11% decrease in buyer demands for property valuations has been noted in early May, compared to the past 6 months. Reports from a prominent realty market indices and analytics firm also suggest a marked reduction in the number of buyers applying for property mortgages.

The waning of buyer interest gives the Reserve Bank of NZ the time it requires to evaluate whether interest-only loans should be limited; or, whether there needs to be a cap on high debt-to-income lending limit interest-only loans; or; even consider a limit on high debt-to-income lending.

However, given the Auckland house prices in 2021, April witnessed steady demand in new property listings. The month still depicted decent sales numbers in the Auckland market as well as other prime real estate markets of NZ, backed by buyer interest.

April Performance Report for NZ’s Biggest Housing Markets

Auckland

In April, the Auckland median house price rose by a decent 2.4% in April compared to the extravagant 15.6% depicted in the previous 12 months. While brokers and property sellers rued the sharp drop from 2019-20 Q3’s 29%, the slow and less-intimidating 2.4% rise encouraged more buyers and investors.

The slow growth catalyzed property affordability, considering that the price rise was a lumpsum 24% in the Auckland house prices in 2021 YTD. As property became more affordable, more homebuyers closed in on deals, in April, on property that would be way over budget for them, otherwise.

Wellington

Wellington was not far behind Auckland as its property market demonstrated a quarterly growth rate that reached above 10.4% by the end of April. The median house price in central Wellington reached $1.1m with a growth rate of 21.3%, and in Masterton, $579k with a growth rate of 35%. The average house price in Kapiti Coast District maintained par with the other locations and demonstrated exceptional growth, ending April at a hike of 32.7%. Even Upper Hutt exhibited an increase of 29.9%, which equals $188,000.

Wellington property princes gave the Auckland house prices in 2021 a steep competition. Akin to the Auckland housing market, first-time buyers recovered from Fear Of Missing Out and avoided the inflated prices with prudence. However, those with an investor’s keen sense and the buying capacity did not shy away after taking the slowed growth rate of prices into account.

Christchurch

The Christchurch property market was not lagging far behind. Growth in house prices inched above 6.9% by the end of April, bringing the annual growth rate to a whopping 15.1%. By Christchurch standards, the market has demonstrated growth by $79k from the previous year; standing now at a respectable $594k median housing price.

Hamilton

Quarterly growth rates in Hamilton climbed 9.4%, taking the annual growth rate to 20.5%. Estimations suggest that this equals a hike of nearly $130k. Mortgaged investors alone account for 39% of the sales here this year.

Dunedin

Dunedin demonstrated a growth of 2.4% in April, which accounts for an $83k hike, even though the annual growth rate dipped. The median house price here has doubled in the last five years; mortgage investors now represent 31% of the purchases here in 2021.

Tauranga

Median housing prices in Tauranga have also climbed above the $900k price bracket for the first time this April. This amounts to a 19% hike from the previous year, equalling a jump of $147k approx.

Inferences from the April property market

The general opinion indicates that the recent Loan-to-value ratio changes implemented by the Government are the primary causes behind this change in buyer behavior. However, the overall market summary suggests no sign of property owners exiting the market.  The number of weekly, new listings fell below the average only around ANZAC Day. Thus, buyer competition is still very active in the Auckland housing market.

It is quite noteworthy that there has been a steady addition of new property units for sale across the major property markets in NZ, including Auckland. A healthy slew of about 3000 properties joined the market until ANZAC weekend. Hence, even as the reports suggest a cooling-off period on the horizon, the Auckland housing market news in itself is a trustable indicator of slow but steady property market growth.